Bitcoin is holding steady near $64,100, up roughly 1% on the day, even as a fast-moving sell-off in global bond markets and a spike in oil prices pressure risk assets more broadly. Ethereum trades close to $1,893, with most major cryptocurrencies flat, while Hyperliquid stands out as the week's outlier with an 8.3% gain.
The calm in crypto prices contrasts sharply with what's happening in fixed income. The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.33% — its highest level since 2007 — a 20 basis point jump as investors demand greater compensation to hold long-dated government debt amid persistent inflation concerns. The move isn't isolated to the US: UK 30-year gilt yields climbed 23 basis points to 5.834% after weaker-than-expected employment data, and Japan's 30-year government bond yield reached 4.126%, nearing its May high.
Adding to the pressure, Brent crude topped $91 a barrel as tensions between the United States and Iran escalate, with President Trump threatening military action against Oman if it interferes with American operations in the region. Rising energy costs feed directly into inflation expectations, which is part of why bond investors are demanding higher yields even as growth risks mount.
Stocks Feel the Squeeze
US equity futures are already reflecting the strain. S&P 500 futures fell 0.5%, putting the index on track for a third consecutive day of losses, while the Invesco QQQ ETF dropped more than 1% in pre-market trading as the global bond sell-off widens.
Related: 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.28%, Its Highest Level Since 2007
Rate Cut Odds Fade
The combination of rising oil prices and surging yields has materially shifted expectations for the Federal Reserve's next move. Futures tracked by CME's FedWatch tool now price in just a 32.6% probability of a rate cut at the September meeting, down sharply from the strong odds assigned just weeks ago, as the inflationary impulse from the US-Iran conflict complicates the case for easing.
Bitcoin's ability to hold its range through this backdrop echoes the pattern seen elsewhere in crypto markets this week, where altcoins have shown a mixed but largely rangebound performance even as macro volatility picks up. Since CME launched 24/7 crypto access on May 29, the exchange has logged more than $2 billion in weekend trades, with weekend sessions generating a combined 0.51% return compared to a negative 0.5% return on weekdays over the past three months — a structural shift that may be helping cushion Bitcoin from the kind of weekday macro shocks now rippling through bonds and oil.
