Bitcoin is running into the same ceiling for a fourth time in ten months, testing a descending resistance structure that traces back to the token's all-time high of roughly $126,200 set in early October 2025. The network's total market capitalization sits near $2.298 trillion, with Bitcoin's share of the broader crypto market holding at 56.66% dominance, and the asset now trades near half of that October peak.
The resistance line has proven durable. Since the October top, Bitcoin has tested the upper boundary of the descending channel three separate times without a decisive break, and the current approach marks the fourth attempt. AMBCrypto reported that Joao Wedson, founder of on-chain analytics firm Alphractal, has argued Bitcoin could remain subdued until it clears this specific structure — a view that puts the burden of proof on bulls rather than assuming a breakout is already underway.
MACD Flashes a Bullish Crossover
Momentum indicators are showing early signs of life. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator recorded a bullish crossover between Thursday and Friday, with the blue MACD line moving above the orange signal line — typically read as an early signal that upward momentum is building. Separately, the Accumulation/Distribution line shows buyers currently dominating order flow, with buying volume reaching its highest level since May 26.
On-chain data adds a second layer to the case: the share of Bitcoin's circulating supply sitting in profit recently exited what analysts call the “bottom discovery” zone, a range the asset has historically occupied shortly before major rallies. A realized-profit signal from short-term holders — wallets that bought within the last several months — has also strengthened, a pattern some analysts treat as a precondition for sustained upside.
Why October's High Still Matters
Bitcoin's push to $126,199 in October capped a rally of nearly 15% that broke through the $118,000–$120,000 zone which had capped price since mid-August 2025, a move accompanied by the liquidation of more than $330 million in short positions. That breakout established the ceiling Bitcoin has now spent ten months failing to reclaim, and it's the reason the current test carries outsized weight for traders: a clean break above the descending trendline would open room toward the 1.618 Fibonacci extension near $133,612, a level some analysts had flagged as the next target had the October rally continued uninterrupted.
Sentiment Still Lagging the Technicals
Despite the improving momentum signals, broader sentiment has not caught up. CoinMarketCap's 24-hour sentiment reading sits at a tepid +2.06, and market cap movement over the same window was effectively flat. That gap between technical setup and trader conviction is the crux of the AMBCrypto analysis: bottom signals have strengthened, but flat sentiment offers limited confirmation that a sustained recovery is actually underway rather than another failed test of the same resistance band.
Related: Global M2 Jumped $1 Trillion in a Week, But Bitcoin May Still Fall
With global M2 money supply having expanded by roughly $1 trillion in a single week — typically a tailwind for risk assets over a multi-month horizon — the macro backdrop offers bulls a longer-term argument even if the immediate chart remains stuck at the same wall it has failed to clear three times already this cycle.
