Bitcoin is entering August 2026 carrying a track record traders would rather not repeat. The asset has closed lower in each of the past four Augusts, and a fresh technical sell signal is fueling concern that this year could extend the streak.
The TD Sequential indicator flashed a "9" sell signal on Bitcoin's three-day chart on July 31, 2026, shortly after the asset climbed toward the $65,000 area during July. Analyst Ali Martinez, who flagged the signal, said it points to weakening bullish momentum just as the calendar turns to a historically difficult month for BTC.
A Four-Year Pattern of August Weakness
The seasonal data behind the concern is stark. Bitcoin has posted a loss every August since 2022:
August hasn't been kind to Bitcoin.
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) July 31, 2026
Over the past four years, $BTC has posted an average decline of 10% during the month.
Will this August break the trend? pic.twitter.com/ELkMVc5BiI
- August 2022: -13.88%
- August 2023: -11.29%
- August 2024: -8.60%
- August 2025: -6.49%
Averaged out, that's roughly a 10% decline across the four-year stretch, a pattern analyst Ali Charts highlighted on X, asking whether this August might finally break the trend.
Current Price Action and Key Levels
Bitcoin was trading around $63,423 at publication, up 0.65% over 24 hours but down about 1.5% for the week. The asset's 50-day simple moving average sat at $63,423, essentially in line with spot price, while the 200-day SMA was considerably higher at $71,335, underscoring how far Bitcoin has pulled back from its longer-term trend line. The 14-day RSI read 43.87, below the neutral 50 mark and consistent with softening momentum rather than oversold conditions.
Traders are watching the $63,000 area closely. A decisive break below that support could open the door to a deeper pullback, particularly if the seasonal pattern and the TD Sequential signal both play out as they have in prior years.
What Would Change the Picture
None of this guarantees a repeat of the last four Augusts. TD Sequential signals mark potential exhaustion points rather than certainties, and Bitcoin has broken from seasonal patterns before. Still, with a technical sell signal, a soft RSI reading, and a well-documented seasonal headwind all lining up at once, traders have more reason than usual to watch how price behaves around the $63,000 support zone in the coming weeks.
