China's central bank is buying far more gold than it's telling anyone. The Kobeissi Letter reported that China acquired more than 40 tonnes of gold in June through the London over-the-counter market, its second-largest monthly purchase since early 2025, a figure that runs 167% above the +15 tonnes China's central bank officially reported for the same month.
Official Numbers Tell Only Part of the Story
The People's Bank of China's own disclosed figure for June was 14.93 tonnes, itself notable as the largest single-month addition since 2023 and the 20th consecutive month of reported buying, bringing declared holdings to roughly 2,346 tonnes. That streak alone has been read as a clear signal of Beijing's push to reduce reliance on dollar-denominated reserves. But the gap between that number and the OTC-market total the Kobeissi Letter flagged suggests the declared streak is itself an undercount of what's actually happening.
A Pattern of Understatement
June wasn't an isolated case. World Gold Council analysis estimated China's actual May purchase at around 48 tonnes, roughly 4.8 times the 10 tonnes the PBoC officially disclosed that month. Over the past 20 months, the PBoC's announced total purchases add up to just 82 tonnes, a figure that looks increasingly disconnected from the scale of buying showing up in London's OTC flows once independent estimates are layered in.
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Why China Is Buying Off the Books
Routing purchases through OTC channels rather than fully disclosed reserve additions lets China accumulate gold without moving the market or signaling the scale of its de-dollarization push in real time. For a central bank trying to diversify reserves away from dollar exposure amid an increasingly volatile geopolitical environment, understating the pace of accumulation avoids both pushing up the price it pays and drawing the kind of scrutiny that comes with an overtly aggressive reserve shift.
