On-chain analytics firm Glassnode says Bitcoin's recent bounce doesn't yet qualify as a genuine trend reversal, arguing the asset remains in what it calls a capitulation regime. In its latest weekly on-chain report, Glassnode notes that Bitcoin has been trading below both the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, near $68,500, and the True Market Mean, near $75,800 — two levels the firm treats as key markers for whether recent buyers and the broader market are sitting on losses.
Glassnode defines the current phase plainly: “coins are changing hands at prices beneath the cost basis of both cohorts,” a condition that has historically coincided with cycle-bottom formation phases in past Bitcoin drawdowns rather than the start of a new uptrend.
One notable feature of this particular episode, according to the report, is how shallow it has been compared with prior cycles. The Relative Unrealized Loss metric — a gauge of how much of the market is underwater on a given position — peaked near 25% this cycle, versus readings exceeding 60% during past bear markets. Glassnode interprets that as a sign of more distributed overhead supply spread across a wider range of holders, meaning the market may need more time rather than a sharp price move to fully work through it.
What would actually confirm a reversal
Glassnode points to a specific threshold that hasn't been met yet: the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio currently sits at 0.75, and the firm says it historically needs to fall below 0.5 to signal genuine seller exhaustion. Coinbase Premium — a proxy for U.S. spot buying demand — remains negative, and while perpetual futures demand has turned positive, Glassnode characterizes it as modest rather than euphoric. As the report puts it: “Until yields ease and this ratio reclaims the 2 threshold, any recovery is best treated as a local rally within an ongoing bottoming process.”
A more cautious read than the day's price action suggests
The analysis stands in some tension with the mood elsewhere in the market, where Bitcoin's move into overbought RSI territory alongside Ethereum and Hyperliquid has been read by short-term technical traders as a genuine breakout. Glassnode's framework, built on holder cost-basis data rather than price momentum alone, is effectively arguing that the two signals are measuring different things — and that traders leaning on RSI and moving averages may be reading more conviction into the move than the underlying holder base has actually shown. The same tension shows up in Bitcoin's reclaim of its 200-day moving average, a bullish technical signal that Glassnode's on-chain metrics haven't yet confirmed with actual demand data.
Related: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Hyperliquid Surge Into Overbought Territory on Treasury News
None of this rules out further upside in the near term — local rallies within a bottoming process can still run for weeks. But Glassnode's framework suggests the more decisive test isn't the next resistance level on a price chart, it's whether real spot demand and profit-taking behavior actually shift, something the firm says hasn't happened yet.
