Ethereum and Solana could both end up with tighter annual supply growth than gold by the end of the decade, according to new projections from Grayscale Investments. Zach Pandl, the firm's head of research, estimates that if tokenomics changes currently being debated among developers and validators on both networks are adopted, Ethereum's annual issuance rate would fall to roughly 0.4% by 2031, while Solana's would settle near 1.1%.
Both figures would sit below gold's long-run annual supply growth of about 1.8%, and further below the roughly 3.3% pace of U.S. consumer price inflation. Pandl's framing is straightforward: all else equal, a shrinking pace of new token issuance tends to support higher prices over time, since fewer new coins are entering circulation each year relative to existing supply.
What Changes on Each Network
The proposals under discussion would rework the issuance schedules that currently govern how many new ETH and SOL enter circulation through staking rewards. Ethereum's issuance is already dynamic, adjusting based on how much ETH is staked, but developers have floated further reductions to the curve as the validator set has grown. Solana's inflation schedule, by contrast, follows a fixed disinflationary path set at the protocol's launch, and the proposal there would accelerate that taper.
Grayscale's research note points out that the Solana proposal currently has broader support across its validator and developer community than the Ethereum equivalent, making it more likely to actually pass in something close to its current form. Ethereum's changes remain a live debate, with core developers still weighing trade-offs around validator incentives and network security.
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The Trade-Off for Stakers
Grayscale's report also flags a wrinkle for people who stake SOL or ETH directly. A staker currently earning the equivalent of 5 SOL in rewards under today's inflation schedule might see that fall to roughly 3 SOL once a reduced schedule takes effect. The offsetting argument is that if reduced issuance does support the token's price, those 3 SOL could end up worth more in dollar terms than the original 5 were before the change.
Market pricing at the time of Grayscale's analysis showed ETH trading near $1,876.89, down about 2.16% on the week, and SOL near $75.16. Neither token's short-term price action showed a strong directional signal, with relative strength index readings on both sitting in neutral territory rather than flagging clear overbought or oversold conditions.
Why Scarcity Comparisons Matter
Comparing crypto issuance schedules to gold and fiat inflation has become a recurring argument among analysts making the case for digital assets as stores of value, echoing the framing bitcoin has already built into its own market narrative through its fixed 21 million coin cap. Applying that lens to Ethereum and Solana is newer territory, since both networks currently have no hard supply ceiling and instead rely on issuance curves that can, in theory, be changed by community consensus.
Whether either proposal clears the practical hurdles of implementation remains uncertain. Ethereum's history of contentious upgrade debates suggests its version could take longer to resolve, while Solana's more centralized decision-making process may allow it to move faster if the current level of support holds.
