Traders on the prediction market Kalshi are placing heavy bets that XRP falls back to retest the $1 level before August is out, with roughly $13,374 already wagered on that specific outcome. The bet comes as XRP has spent the past several weeks grinding along its multi-month low near $1.02, even as the token posted a modest 1.61% gain in the 24 hours before the market's odds were tallied.
The setup reflects a token that has had a rough year by almost any measure. XRP started 2026 at $1.85 and touched a January high of $2.41, but has since fallen roughly 43% to enter August at $1.06 — putting it more than 68% below where it traded a year earlier. Since late June, the token has been boxed in between $1.00 and $1.18, with every rally attempt rejected at the $1.18-$1.20 resistance band and the round $1.00 level standing as the only support bulls have successfully defended all year.
Why Kalshi Bettors Are Leaning Bearish
The bearish positioning lines up with a broader loss of institutional appetite. Spot XRP ETF inflows totaled just $27.29 million for all of July, a collapse from the $666 million the funds pulled in during their debut month back in November 2025. Eleven of July's 22 trading days saw zero net flows at all, a sign that the institutional buyers who drove XRP's ETF launch have largely stepped to the sidelines.
Ripple's routine monthly unlock of 1 billion XRP from escrow, which happens on the first of every month, has also stopped moving the price the way it once did, since most of the released tokens are typically re-locked rather than sold. That leaves the token's near-term direction more dependent on macro catalysts than on token-supply mechanics — namely an August 12 inflation report and the Jackson Hole symposium running August 27-29, alongside whether Bitcoin can hold support above $58,000.
Related: Thune Files Cloture on CLARITY Act, Sets Up Sept. 15 Senate Vote
A Stalled Vote Removes a Potential Catalyst
Compounding the malaise, the regulatory catalyst that XRP holders have watched most closely has slipped further out. The Senate postponed a vote in late July on the CLARITY Act, the bill that would permanently classify XRP as a commodity rather than a security, pushing consideration to after lawmakers return from recess in September. With that potential tailwind delayed and ETF demand fading, most analysts now project XRP will simply spend August trading between $1.00 and $1.18, finishing the month near $1.10 rather than staging a decisive breakout in either direction. Still, the article's own technical read notes XRP has begun printing a different signal lately, with a modest recovery from the downtrend hinting that sellers may be growing exhausted even as Kalshi's bettors wager otherwise.
