Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has set a $300 price target on SpaceX stock, implying a 125% rally from its current level of around $133 a share, according to Finbold. SpaceX trades on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, and Jonas's call stands out even among an already bullish Wall Street: the average 12-month target across 31 analysts sits at $229.54, implying roughly 72.4% upside, with forecasts ranging from $75 to $800 and a ratings split of 24 buy, 5 hold, and 2 sell.
What separates Jonas's model from the pack is where the value is coming from. Of his $300 target, more than half — over $150 per share — is tied to SpaceX's AI operations, with the remainder split between launch services and Starlink satellite connectivity.
A Business Built on Three Pillars Now
The bull case leans on a set of second-quarter numbers that were hard to ignore: revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA of roughly $3.5 billion. Starlink alone generated more than $4.2 billion of that on around 12 million subscribers, while the newer AI segment contributed approximately $2.6 billion. SpaceX also spent $18.4 billion in capital expenditures during the quarter, primarily on AI infrastructure, and is sitting on close to $100 billion in cash with an order backlog of roughly $47.5 billion. Management has guided toward a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by the end of 2026.
Two Months Removed From a $1.8 Trillion IPO
The price target comes just weeks after SpaceX's June 2026 public debut, which priced shares at $135 and raised approximately $75 billion at a valuation near $1.8 trillion. That listing marked a shift already visible in the company's revenue mix: Starlink made up about 61% of SpaceX's revenue in 2025 at $11.4 billion, and is projected to reach roughly $20 billion this year, or 70% to 75% of total revenue, as the satellite business has overtaken traditional launch services as the company's primary growth engine.
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The AI Bet Carries Its Own Risk
The AI segment underpinning more than half of Jonas's target traces back to SpaceX's acquisition of Elon Musk's xAI, which closed in February 2026. That unit is not yet profitable — it posted a $2.5 billion loss in the first quarter of 2026 alone, a reminder that the fastest-growing piece of the bull case is also the one currently losing the most money. Investors betting on the $300 target are, in effect, betting that AI spending converts into AI revenue faster than it burns cash.
For now, the stock's roughly flat trading since its $135 IPO price suggests the market hasn't fully bought into either the bull or bear case — leaving Jonas's target as one of the more aggressive bets on where that debate ultimately lands.
