Nike shares fell below $40 on Monday, touching $39.41 and closing at their weakest level since September 2014. The decline leaves the stock down roughly 38% in 2026 and nearly 78% below its November 2021 all-time high of $179.10, erasing more than $200 billion in market value since that peak.
The immediate trigger was disappointing guidance from rival On Holding, whose second-quarter sales and full-year revenue outlook came in below Wall Street's expectations and renewed concerns about softening demand across the premium sportswear category Nike also competes in. But the deeper story is Nike's own numbers: Nike's own fiscal second-quarter results showed net income down 32% year over year and gross margin down 300 basis points to 40.6%, even as revenue ticked up 1% on a reported basis.
China Remains the Sticking Point
Greater China revenue dropped 11% to $5.85 billion in fiscal 2026, and that regional weakness has become the clearest drag on the company's broader turnaround narrative. Executives have pointed to progress in North American wholesale relationships as evidence the “Win Now” strategy is working, but investors have grown skeptical that margin improvements reported so far will hold up against continued softness in China and direct-to-consumer sales.
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A Rerating, Not Just a Dip
Analysts increasingly describe the move as a rerating rather than a temporary pullback — a market that no longer takes reported margin gains at face value while international performance stays weak. Several have pushed back their timeline for a meaningful China and international recovery to fiscal year 2028, meaning Nike's stock could remain under pressure for several more quarters even if North American wholesale demand continues to stabilize.
The scale of the decline has also made Nike a reference point in broader conversations about how far a blue-chip stock can fall relative to more volatile assets: shares are now down further from their peak, in percentage terms, than Bitcoin has fallen from its own October 2025 record. That comparison says less about crypto's stability than about how thoroughly Wall Street has repriced Nike's growth story over the past four years.
