An on-chain wallet that accumulated 1,768 BTC at an average price of $74,603 — a $131.91 million position built before Bitcoin's last major rally — has swung from a substantial unrealized profit into a loss, according to on-chain tracker Lookonchain. At Bitcoin's cycle peak, when the asset traded near $126,000, the position was sitting on roughly $91 million in unrealized gains. With BTC now trading around $63,600, that same position is underwater by approximately $19.7 million.
The wallet appears to be acting on that reversal. Lookonchain flagged a deposit of 114 BTC, worth about $7.24 million at current prices, into Kraken — a move typically associated with an intent to sell rather than simply moving funds between cold storage and an exchange for other purposes.
A Round Trip From Profit to Loss
The swing illustrates just how sharply sentiment can flip for even a well-timed long-term holder. Buying at $74,603 looked like a strong entry through most of the subsequent rally, and the position would have been comfortably in the black at almost any point until Bitcoin's recent drawdown erased roughly half of its peak value. A holder who rode the position all the way from a six-figure unrealized gain to a seven-figure loss, without taking profit along the way, is now facing the kind of decision that separates long-term conviction from capitulation.
Related: Bitcoin Spot Volume Hits Lowest Level Since 2019, Glassnode Says
What On-Chain Deposits Signal
Large deposits into centralized exchanges are one of the more reliable on-chain signals traders watch for early signs of selling pressure, since coins generally need to sit on an exchange before they can be sold into the order book. A single 114 BTC deposit isn't large enough to move the market on its own, but trackers like Lookonchain flag these movements because they can be an early indicator of whether a previously patient holder is beginning to lose conviction — particularly one whose position has just crossed from profit into loss for the first time since accumulation.
