Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), used his company's second-quarter earnings call on July 31 to lay out five specific headwinds he believes are keeping Bitcoin from breaking out to new highs, even as the asset's longer-term technical picture remains intact.
Saylor pointed to competition for capital from artificial intelligence infrastructure buildouts, ongoing trade tensions, instability tied to the Middle East crisis, an anticipated Federal Reserve rate increase in September, and a stalled CLARITY Act facing a legislative deadline the following week to advance this year.
Reading the 200-Week Moving Average
Despite listing the near-term obstacles, Saylor directed attention to Bitcoin's 200-week moving average as the indicator he considers most reliable.
The right price signal to look at is the 200-week MA, and you see it's a pretty up and to the right message.
He noted that the same measure marked Bitcoin's bottoming phase during the 2022 downturn. As of August 1, Bitcoin traded near $63,700, giving the asset a market capitalization of roughly $2.248 trillion and a dominance level of 56.27% of the total crypto market. Saylor characterized demand as slightly improved but still net negative for the first half of 2026.
Headwinds Could Flip to Tailwinds
Saylor argued that each of the five factors he identified carries the potential to reverse into a tailwind for Bitcoin. A resolution to trade tensions, an easing Middle East situation, a pause in Fed tightening, or a successful advance of the CLARITY Act could each remove pressure that has kept capital on the sidelines, in his view.
The CLARITY Act in particular has become the crypto industry's top legislative priority, and its fate over the coming days is likely to shape sentiment heading into the rest of the year.
