Solana is trading around $77, hovering just above a cluster of short-term moving averages that are converging in the $75-$76 range for the first time since 2025. Chart watchers are eyeing a potential "mini golden cross," where a faster moving average crosses back above a slower one, which would mark the first bullish crossover of these specific averages since last year.
The setup follows a difficult stretch for SOL, which is still down roughly 38% year-to-date after bottoming near $60 in June. Since July, the token has carved out a base between $70 and $75, with the daily RSI sitting around 57 — above the neutral 50 line but well short of overbought territory. Immediate resistance sits at $78.07, and a clean break above the $78-$80 zone is the level traders are watching to confirm the shift in momentum; the longer-term moving average near $89 remains the bigger hurdle above that.
Positioning Data Leans Bullish
Derivatives positioning backs up the case for a short-term bottom. The long/short ratio on Binance sits near 2.10 and on OKX near 2.02, while Binance's top-trader ratio is even more skewed at 2.38 — all pointing to traders leaning long rather than pressing further downside bets. That lines up with reports that large Bitfinex-based whale accounts have been closing out short positions in recent sessions, removing a source of overhead selling pressure.
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ETF Flows and a Network Upgrade Add Tailwinds
The technical setup is coinciding with renewed institutional interest. Spot Solana ETFs pulled in $8.8 million on August 10, their strongest single day since May, with Bitwise's BSOL fund absorbing nearly the entire amount and pushing cumulative inflows past $1.15 billion since launch. On the network side, validator client Agave 4.2 began mainnet feature activations the week of August 17, cutting slot times toward 200 milliseconds and laying groundwork for the Alpenglow consensus overhaul expected to activate on mainnet in October.
What Would Confirm the Break
None of that guarantees a breakout. SOL has failed to clear the $78-$80 zone on prior attempts this year, and the 20-day EMA still sits below the 50-day EMA on some measures, meaning the short-term trend has not fully flipped bullish. A daily close above $78 with rising volume is the level most chart watchers are using as confirmation; a rejection there would likely send price back toward the $70-$75 base, with $65 and the June low near $60 as the next support levels if that base fails to hold.
