Shares of SpaceX extended their August rally to nearly 40% over five trading sessions, adding roughly $550 billion in combined market value since August 6, after Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas argued the market is significantly undervaluing the company's artificial intelligence business. The stock jumped 8.5% in a single session on the initial call, adding over $140 billion in market value that day alone, before extending gains past 10% as the rally continued.
Jonas set a base-case price target of $300 — implying more than 125% upside from recent levels — and outlined a bull-case scenario of $600 per share, which would value the company at roughly $8 trillion. The catalyst wasn't Starlink alone: Jonas pointed specifically to SpaceX's expanding AI compute ambitions as the piece of the business he believes investors are pricing at close to zero.
Starlink's growth underpins the bull case
The rally also followed an all-hands meeting where CEO Elon Musk laid out plans for SpaceX's artificial intelligence push alongside an update on Starlink, the company's space-based broadband arm, which Musk said had reached 22 million mobile subscribers, with its subscriber base doubling over the past year. SpaceX has also reported a 92% jump in revenue to $7.8 billion in its most recent disclosure, giving the AI thesis a fast-growing base business to build on rather than a speculative side project.
A rebound from a post-IPO slide, timed to a lockup expiration
The surge marks a sharp reversal from where the stock stood just weeks earlier. SPCX had fallen more than 30% from its June 16 high of $201.80, closing as low as roughly $133, just below its June IPO price of $135, ahead of the expiration of its first post-IPO lockup period. That lockup — which frees early shareholders to sell for the first time since the offering — had been seen as a potential source of selling pressure, making the rally's timing notable: instead of the anticipated supply overhang, the stock caught a bid on the AI re-rating just as the lockup came due, pushing its market capitalization back toward $1.75 trillion and beyond.
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Whether the rally holds will depend on how much of the AI narrative shows up in SpaceX's actual disclosed compute revenue in coming quarters, rather than in analyst price targets alone. For now, the move has made SpaceX one of the more dramatic examples of the AI infrastructure re-rating sweeping through companies with any plausible claim to compute capacity, alongside more traditional cloud names.
