Two months after SpaceX's record-setting IPO, an investor who put $1,000 into the stock on June 15 would be sitting on roughly $714 today — a paper loss of about $286, or 28.6%. The math traces a round trip: shares stood at $196 on June 15, spiked toward $225 in the initial euphoria, sank to a low near $105 in early August, and have since recovered to $140, still well below where they stood two months ago even as they sit modestly above the original $135 IPO price.
SpaceX went public on June 12 at $135 a share, raising $85.7 billion in what was described at the time as the largest IPO on record and pricing the company at approximately $1.77 trillion. Shares briefly pushed the company's market capitalization above $2 trillion before the retreat that has defined most of its short trading history since.
Earnings Beat, Spending Spooked Investors
The stock's most violent swing followed its first-ever quarterly report as a public company. For the second quarter, SpaceX's investor relations materials showed revenue climbing 92% year-over-year to $7.81 billion, beating analyst expectations of roughly $6.93 billion, while the net loss narrowed to $541 million and adjusted EBITDA reached $3.5 billion. Starlink remained the largest single revenue driver, and executives told investors annualized revenue could approach $100 billion by the end of 2026.
What spooked the market was capital spending, not the top line. The company poured close to $18 billion into AI infrastructure and Starship development during the quarter, and shares fell roughly 8% in after-hours trading as investors weighed whether that spending pace is sustainable. The reaction fits a pattern playing out well beyond SpaceX this earnings season, where heavy capital spending has repeatedly overshadowed revenue beats even as other newly prominent names, like Reddit's jump on its S&P 500 inclusion, show equity markets can still reward the right catalyst.
A Second Stress Test: The Lockup Expiration
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SpaceX shares faced a second test in early August when a lockup covering roughly 911.5 million shares expired, an event that typically pressures newly public stocks as early investors and employees become free to sell. Instead, the stock absorbed the supply and closed the week ended August 7 up nearly 23%, and on August 10 it closed above its $135 IPO price for the first time since mid-July.
Wall Street's overall read on the stock has stayed positive through the volatility. Citi raised its 2026 and 2027 forecasts after the earnings beat and reiterated a buy rating with a $200 price target, part of a broader Moderate Buy consensus among analysts. The persistent point of debate is valuation: SpaceX trades at a price-to-sales ratio near 69, a multiple that leaves little room for error if AI-related spending keeps outpacing revenue growth in the quarters ahead.
