AI Models Split on XRP: Finbold Sees $1.03 by August 15

A panel of AI models polled by Finbold has landed on a modestly bearish near-term call for XRP, projecting the token at $1.03 by August 15, 2026 — a roughly 0.8% decline from where it was trading when the forecast was run. Finbold's report shows the three underlying models weren't in full agreement: GPT-5.7 Luna came in as the most bullish at $1.04, a 0.29% gain, while Gemini 3.5 Flash matched the panel's blended $1.03 call, and Claude Opus 4.8 was the outlier on the downside at $1.02, a projected 1.83% drop. The forecasts were generated using a mix of technical indicators, including RSI, MACD and recent short-term price action.

As of August 9, XRP was changing hands at $1.04, up a thin 0.2% on the day but still down more than 4% for the week. The token has spent the past several sessions oscillating between a late-July high above $1.12 and lows near $1.02, with its 14-day RSI reading a neutral-to-bearish 40.21 and the broader crypto Fear & Greed Index sitting at 31, firmly in "Fear" territory.

A monthly buy signal complicates the bearish lean

Working against the AI panel's short-term call is a longer-horizon technical signal that's caught traders' attention. Analyst Ali Martinez, posting as Ali Charts, flagged that the Tom DeMark Sequential indicator has flashed a buy signal on XRP's monthly chart:

"The Tom DeMark Sequential has flashed a buy signal on XRP's monthly chart, hinting at a possible macro shift from bearish to bullish momentum."

Martinez pointed to the indicator's track record on XRP specifically, noting it has marked several major reversals over the past six years, including a 1,074% rally that followed an April 2020 buy signal and a separate advance of more than 973% after an August 2022 signal. It's worth noting the indicator's broader history is mixed rather than uniformly reliable — DeMark's method has caught real turning points, including the 2009 market bottom, but it has also been known to flash exhaustion signals early or repeatedly during strongly trending markets, meaning confirmation from volume and price action typically matters as much as the signal itself.

Whales are accumulating into the chop

On-chain data adds another layer to the picture: Santiment figures cited in Finbold's report show XRP whales added more than 380 million XRP over the past week, pushing large-wallet holdings to their highest recent levels even as spot price churned sideways. That kind of accumulation during a stretch of weak price action is often read as a sign that larger holders see the current range as an entry point rather than a level to exit from — though it doesn't guarantee the AI panel's short-term downside call won't play out first. For a look at how prediction markets are pricing an even sharper XRP move, see Kalshi traders' bets on XRP retesting its $1 floor.

Two timeframes, two different stories

The net effect is a market sending conflicting signals depending on the window you look through: AI models trained on short-term technicals see modest further downside into mid-August, a monthly-chart pattern with a genuine (if imperfect) historical track record hints at a larger reversal setting up, and whale wallets are quietly adding exposure regardless of which read wins out first. None of the three is definitive on its own, which is arguably the more honest takeaway than any single point forecast.

Related: ChatGPT Puts 30% Odds on XRP Crashing to $0.50 by End of 2027