ASTER is testing the lower edge of a five-month trading range after a fresh token unlock added roughly $1.37 million worth of supply to circulation, reviving questions about whether the protocol's buyback program can keep pace with new sell pressure.
The token has traded between $0.595 and $0.775 since February 9, and it is now sitting near the bottom of that band. Price has slipped below all of its major exponential moving averages, a setup that traders typically read as a loss of short-term momentum even when the broader range remains intact.
Where the unlocked tokens are going
More than 70% of the newly released supply is earmarked for ecosystem staking and airdrop programs rather than being dumped directly on the open market. Separately, the protocol has committed 99% of its fee revenue to token buybacks, with any unclaimed rewards recycled back into the ecosystem through additional airdrops.
That buyback engine had a strong showing on July 29, when the protocol generated $341,000 in daily fees — its highest single-day total to date. The question now, as the unlock filters through, is whether that level of fee generation is sustainable enough to offset the added float.
Leverage still leaning bullish
Derivatives data offers a mixed signal. The weighted funding rate remains positive at roughly 0.0068%, indicating that leveraged traders are still paying a premium to stay long even as spot price grinds lower — a sign that some of the market hasn't given up on a bounce.
That optimism is being tested by a liquidation cluster of more than $1 million in positions sitting just below current price, near the $0.58 level. A break of the current range floor would likely trigger those liquidations and accelerate any move toward that zone.
What it would take to stabilize
For ASTER to hold its range, buyback volume tied to protocol fees needs to keep absorbing the unlock-driven supply faster than sellers can offload it. A repeat of the July 29 fee high would help the case; a fade in daily fees while the unlock continues to vest would leave the $0.58 liquidity pocket as the more likely next stop.
