Highlights
- Glassnode says Bitcoin rebounded above $80,000 after August's short squeeze but stalled at $83,000-$86,000 resistance before slipping back to $76,000.
- The share of BTC supply held in profit rose from 65% to 68% at the same price level versus May, meaning more coins are now vulnerable to selling.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in an average $290 million a day during the rebound, but trading volume of roughly $3 billion a day remains far below prior expansion phases.
- Separately, Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas finds Bitcoin's six-month correlation to U.S. stocks has stayed near 0.4 — lower than gold, small caps and even Treasuries.
Two independent reads on Bitcoin's market structure landed within hours of each other, and together they paint a picture of an asset stuck in a narrow range but arguably less tied to equities than critics claim. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode's latest weekly report, summarized by PANews, tracked Bitcoin's failed attempt to break above $86,000 resistance, while Bloomberg Intelligence's Eric Balchunas separately published correlation data undercutting the idea that Bitcoin simply trades as a leveraged Nasdaq bet.
A Rally That Ran Out of Room
Bitcoin briefly rebounded past $80,000 following August's short squeeze, Glassnode found, before running into resistance in the $83,000-$86,000 band — a zone the firm identifies as a long-term supply concentration area — and retreating to roughly $76,000. Compared with the same price level back in May, the share of Bitcoin supply sitting in profit has climbed from 65% to 68%, largely because summer accumulation reset the short-term holder cost basis up to around $71,000. That shift means more coins now turn profitable at any given price, which Glassnode flags as a source of expanding potential sell pressure the higher Bitcoin climbs. Spot ETFs kept buying through the rebound, averaging roughly $290 million in net daily inflows, but daily trading turnover of about $3 billion remains well below levels seen during prior expansion phases — a sign that policy-driven ETF demand alone isn't generating the volume needed to sustain a breakout.
The Correlation Case Against the 'Beta Trade' Narrative
Balchunas's analysis attacks a different assumption. Looking at the past six months, he finds Bitcoin's correlation with U.S. equities has held around 0.4 — lower than gold's, small-cap stocks', emerging markets' and even U.S. Treasuries' correlation to the same benchmark, all of which have risen noticeably over the same window. Balchunas acknowledges the six-month sample is short, but argues the data undercuts the persistent narrative that Bitcoin is little more than a high-beta proxy for the Nasdaq 100. If anything, it's traditional safe-haven assets like gold and bonds that have been trading more like stocks lately, not the other way around.
Related: Bitcoin Slips Below $76,500 as Iran Strikes Push Oil Above $93
Why Both Data Points Matter Together
Read side by side, the two reports suggest Bitcoin's price action is being shaped less by equity-market sentiment than by its own internal supply dynamics — profit-taking thresholds, ETF flow consistency, and thin volume — even as macro pressure builds elsewhere, with the 10-year Treasury yield rebounding to a cycle-high 4.8%. That combination argues against treating Bitcoin as a simple risk-on/risk-off trade tied to stock indices, while still leaving it vulnerable to its own supply-driven ceiling near $86,000.
What to Watch
A decisive close above $86,000 on rising volume, rather than ETF inflows alone, would be the clearest signal the current resistance band is breaking. Until then, Glassnode's data suggests further chop between $76,000 and $86,000 is the more likely path.
FAQ
Why did Bitcoin fail to hold above $80,000?
Glassnode says it ran into resistance in the $83,000-$86,000 supply zone and pulled back to around $76,000 amid thin trading volume.
What does 68% supply in profit mean?
It means 68% of circulating Bitcoin is currently worth more than its holders paid, up from 65% at the same price in May, which raises the pool of coins that could be sold for profit.
Is Bitcoin's price still driven by the stock market?
Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas found Bitcoin's six-month correlation to U.S. stocks has stayed near 0.4, lower than gold, small caps and Treasuries, arguing against the pure Nasdaq-proxy narrative.
Are ETF inflows enough to push Bitcoin higher?
Not on their own — Glassnode notes ETF buying has averaged $290 million a day, but overall trading volume near $3 billion a day remains well below prior rally phases.
