Bitwise CIO Sees Bitcoin at $1.3M by 2035, $100K in 2026

Highlights

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says Bitcoin reaching $1.3 million by 2035 will be relatively easy given current institutional trends.
He expects Bitcoin back above $100,000 before the end of this year, calling current conditions extremely bullish.
The $1.3 million target rests on Bitcoin capturing 25% of a store-of-value market Hougan sees growing at 13% annually.
Hougan has said the target could prove conservative if crypto's role in global finance keeps expanding.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan reiterated his long-term bull case for Bitcoin this week, saying a price of $1.3 million per coin by 2035 will be relatively easy for Bitcoin to reach given the pace of institutional adoption already underway. Hougan also said he expects Bitcoin to trade back above $100,000 before the end of this year, describing current market conditions as extremely bullish. The comments extend a thesis Hougan has been building publicly since at least August, when he first laid out the reasoning behind the seven-figure long-term target in detail.

The Math Behind the $1.3 Million Target

Hougan's projection rests on Bitcoin's positioning within the broader store-of-value market, a category historically dominated by gold. He points to gold's own market capitalization growth, from roughly $2 trillion when the first gold ETFs launched in 2004 to about $30 trillion today, as a template, and argues that if the total store-of-value market keeps expanding at an average annual rate of around 13%, Bitcoin capturing just 25% of that market a decade from now would put each coin at approximately $1.3 million. Hougan has separately estimated that a 1% Bitcoin allocation from institutions collectively controlling $100 trillion to $200 trillion in assets would be sufficient to support that price level, a framing CoinDesk detailed when Hougan first presented the thesis in August. He has also suggested the $1.3 million figure could prove conservative if Bitcoin's role in global finance continues to expand beyond a pure store-of-value use case. Bitwise, the asset manager where Hougan serves as CIO, has been among the more vocal proponents of institutional Bitcoin adoption since the firm helped bring spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds to market, giving Hougan's public forecasts added weight as commentary from inside a firm directly positioned to benefit from, and track, the institutional flows his thesis depends on.

A Nearer-Term Bullish Signal Too

Beyond the decade-long target, Hougan's expectation that Bitcoin returns above $100,000 before year-end is a more immediate and testable claim, and it places him among a growing chorus of bullish institutional voices making similarly aggressive near-term and long-term calls in the same window. His comments arrive alongside other seven-figure long-run Bitcoin targets circulating in the market, including Binance founder CZ's prediction that $1 million Bitcoin will happen much quicker than 25 years, and sit well above more conservative institutional targets such as Bernstein's reaffirmed $150,000 target for 2027 and $300,000 by 2029. The spread between these forecasts illustrates how differently even bullish analysts model the pace of institutional adoption, with Hougan's math leaning heavily on Bitcoin matching gold's historical growth trajectory as a store-of-value asset rather than on any specific near-term catalyst. None of the forecasts currently circulating rely on the same underlying model, which makes them difficult to compare directly even when the headline numbers land in a similar seven-figure range.

For markets, repeated public reinforcement of a $1.3 million target from a CIO at one of the larger crypto asset managers functions as a standing reference point that other allocators and media commentary continue to cite, regardless of whether the underlying 13% store-of-value growth assumption holds over a full decade. Hougan's framing explicitly ties the outcome to institutional allocation decisions rather than retail demand, meaning the pace of ETF inflows and corporate treasury adoption over the coming years will likely serve as the most direct real-time gauge of whether his thesis is tracking or falling behind schedule.

What to Watch

The nearer-term test of Hougan's comments is straightforward: whether Bitcoin actually reclaims $100,000 before the end of the year, as he predicted. Longer term, sustained growth in institutional allocations, ETF inflows, and corporate treasury purchases will be the clearest indicators of whether the $1.3 million-by-2035 thesis is on pace, given that Hougan's own math depends on a 1% allocation from tens of trillions in institutional assets materializing over the coming decade.

FAQ

What is Matt Hougan's Bitcoin price target?
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan projects Bitcoin could reach $1.3 million by 2035, based on Bitcoin capturing 25% of a store-of-value market he expects to keep growing at roughly 13% annually.

Does Hougan have a shorter-term price call too?
Yes. He said he expects Bitcoin to trade back above $100,000 before the end of this year, calling current market conditions extremely bullish.

What assumptions underpin the $1.3 million figure?
Hougan models Bitcoin's growth on gold's historical trajectory as a store-of-value asset and estimates a 1% Bitcoin allocation from institutions holding $100 trillion to $200 trillion in assets would support that price.

How does this compare to other analysts' Bitcoin targets?
It's more aggressive than Bernstein's $150,000 target for 2027, though other figures like Binance founder CZ have made even more aggressive long-run calls toward $1 million or higher.