Bitcoin has climbed 32.4% since bottoming at $58,525 on June 30, but Galaxy Research says the coin still has roughly 6.4% to go before it can be considered in a genuine bull market. The firm's threshold: a weekly close above $82,470, Bitcoin's current 50-week moving average, with the asset currently trading between $73,000 and $77,500.
The report frames current entry points as "high-risk" until that line is cleared and held, pushing back against the narrative that Bitcoin's recent bounce off its June low already marks the start of the next leg up.
Why Galaxy Is Looking at the 50-Week Line
Galaxy Research built its case on a review of every Bitcoin downturn cycle since 2011. Across 106 instances of price breaking above the shorter 50-day moving average, 43 proved false signals — Bitcoin crossed that line as many as 13 times between 2013 and 2015 alone before reversing to set new cycle lows. The 50-day average, in other words, has a track record of head-faking traders into calling bottoms too early.
The 50-week moving average has been far more reliable. In 11 of 13 completed bear-market cycles, a weekly close above that line correctly marked that the cycle bottom had already passed. Only two false signals occurred across 15 years of data, both during the 2021–2022 "double top" period. That track record is consistent with independent long-term indicators tracking Bitcoin's 50- and 100-week averages, which have coincided with every major market bottom since 2015, including the crossovers of April 2015, February 2019 and September 2022 that each preceded a bull run.
The Historical Timeline for Recovery
Galaxy's data shows Bitcoin has historically needed 130 to 284 days after bottoming to close above its 50-week line, by which point prices had typically already risen 63% to 80% off the low. Measured from the June 30 bottom, Bitcoin is currently a little under two months into that window, and its 32.4% recovery so far sits well short of the 63%-plus gains that have historically accompanied a confirmed 50-week breakout.
Galaxy Research characterizes present entry points as "high-risk" until a weekly candle closes above $82,470.
What It Means for Traders
The distinction Galaxy draws is between a relief rally and a structural trend change. Bitcoin has recently shown other signs of technical repair, including reclaiming its 200-day moving average for the first time since November, which some analysts have read as an encouraging short-term signal even as Glassnode has cautioned the broader trend reversal isn't yet confirmed. Galaxy's framework suggests both readings can be true at once: a real, tradeable bounce that still falls short of the technical bar that has historically separated genuine bull markets from bear-market relief rallies. Until Bitcoin closes a week above $82,470, the firm's own data implies the higher-probability read remains one of continued range-bound risk rather than a confirmed new bull leg.
Related: Bitcoin Reclaims 200-Day Moving Average for First Time Since November
For now, the $82,470 level gives traders a concrete number to watch rather than relying on sentiment alone — a rare case of a bull/bear debate being reduced to a single, testable price point.
