Galaxy Research has cut its estimate for the odds the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026 down to just 30%, a sharp slide from the coin-flip 50% odds the firm assigned only weeks earlier. The estimate has been moving in one direction for months: Galaxy pegged the bill's chances at 75% in May, cut that to 60% in early June, brought it down to an even 50% shortly after, and has now landed at 30%.
Firmwide research head Alex Thorn has been explicit that the repeated downgrades reflect timing pressure rather than any weakening in the bill's underlying policy support. The CLARITY Act would split digital-asset oversight between the SEC and CFTC, handing the CFTC primary authority over most tokens — a framework that has broad industry backing but now faces a shrinking legislative runway. Galaxy's own business has been expanding into traditional finance in the meantime, including a recent deal with Israel's largest bank to offer Bitcoin, Ether and Solana trading, underscoring how directly the firm's research desk and its commercial interests are tied to how this legislation ultimately shakes out.
A Calendar Problem, Not a Policy Problem
The bill passed the House in 2025 and cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May 2026, but a 60-vote threshold in the full Senate still requires a merged Banking-Agriculture committee text, a motion to proceed, a full floor debate, an amendment process, and then House action on whatever the Senate ultimately produces. Each of those steps eats into a calendar that is already tight, and Galaxy's successive downgrades track almost exactly with how much of that runway has disappeared each time it revisits the estimate.
Related: Trump Set to Join White House Meeting With Crypto CEOs Next Week
Stakes Rising as the White House Steps In
The declining odds add urgency to the Trump administration's own efforts to keep momentum behind the bill, including a planned White House meeting with crypto, prediction-market and traditional-finance executives and a CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee session both scheduled for next week. Those sessions are unlikely to move the Senate's clock directly, but they signal that the administration sees the bill's fading odds as reason to apply more visible pressure rather than wait out the calendar.
