Galaxy Digital's research arm has slashed its odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 from 50% to just 30%, warning that the crypto market-structure bill now requires a "last-ditch effort" to reach President Donald Trump's desk before the window closes. The downgrade, published by Galaxy's head of research Alex Thorn on July 24, comes just days after Senate negotiators finally released a combined 616-page draft text merging work from the Banking and Agriculture committees.
Despite the long-awaited release of the text, Thorn said the coalition needed to pass the bill is "not visibly in place" and argued it needs a "last-ditch effort" and a legislative "grand bargain" to reach the president's desk. He was blunt about what has changed since Galaxy's last estimate: "The calendar is no longer merely an obstacle. It is now the enemy," he wrote, citing opposition from a handful of Democrats, uncertainty over Republican support and just days remaining to begin the floor process if the bill has any chance of becoming law this year.
The Math Doesn't Add Up Yet
The vote count remains the central problem. Republicans officially hold 53 Senate seats, but Sen. Josh Hawley and Sen. Rand Paul are reported likely to vote no, and Sen. Mitch McConnell has not voted since his June hospitalization, leaving Republicans with roughly 50 dependable votes before any further defections — well short of the 60 needed to overcome a filibuster. That math means Republicans cannot pass the bill alone and need Democratic support to clear the 60-vote threshold.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has already tempered expectations on timing. Thune told Punchbowl he does not think the chamber will complete the bill before recess, though he said he would like to at least start the floor process. Thorn's report reportedly pegs July 30 as the practical deadline for beginning that process if the bill is to have any realistic shot this year, with the alternative being a slide into September or later, closer to the 2026 midterm campaign season.
Democrats Say the Ethics Language Falls Short
The immediate flashpoint is a new ethics provision inserted into the merged draft, one that the White House and Trump himself reportedly signed off on. A group of seven Democratic senators central to any bipartisan deal — Angela Alsobrooks, Cory Booker, Catherine Cortez Masto, Ruben Gallego, John Hickenlooper, Mark Warner and Raphael Warnock — rejected the language on July 22, arguing it doesn't go far enough. In a joint statement, they said:
"The Republican-proposed text of the CLARITY Act as it currently stands falls short. Key provisions including those addressing ethics for elected officials, consumer protection, illicit finance, conflicts of interest and market integrity must be strengthened."
The dispute centers heavily on enforcement. White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt said the Democratic criticism appears to center on two issues: the lack of enforcement by state attorneys general and the absence of penalties for Trump's previous crypto activity, arguing that federal-only enforcement is consistent with existing ethics laws and that penalizing past conduct would conflict with the Constitution's ban on ex post facto laws. Democrats, meanwhile, want state attorneys general to be able to step in if the Department of Justice fails to enforce the rules — a provision Republicans have so far blocked in favor of exclusive DOJ authority.
Senator Ruben Gallego offered one of the sharpest public rebukes of the draft, telling Politico that Republicans had turned months of negotiation into an unserious offer.
"Whatever piece of s–t they sent back to us, that was not a serious effort."
Gallego added that he is working on a counteroffer alongside Republican Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina and other GOP members not yet publicly named.
Related: Crypto Groups Push for CLARITY Act as Ethics Dispute Stalls Senate Bill
Industry Pressure Mounts as the Clock Runs Down
Outside the Senate chamber, crypto trade groups are pushing hard for floor time. The Crypto Council for Innovation, Blockchain Association and The Digital Chamber sent a joint letter to Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer on Friday pushing them to prioritize floor consideration of the bill, arguing it would establish federal rules for digital assets and strengthen consumer protections. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has separately described the bill as being at the "one-yard line," while SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci argued in a CNBC appearance that the procedural hurdle, rather than the substance of the bill, has become its biggest obstacle given the narrow legislative window.
Thorn's downgrade marks the third time Galaxy has cut its odds this year, having moved from 75% in late May to 60% in June, then 50% in late June, and now 30%. Even as he lowered the probability, Thorn maintained that the underlying legislation remains sound, writing on social media that it is "a strong bill that improves regulation, protects investors, promotes innovation" and that "the time for incremental negotiations is over. we need a last-ditch effort. we need leadership!" Whether that leadership materializes before lawmakers leave Washington for August recess will determine whether the CLARITY Act reaches Trump's desk this year or slips into next year's legislative calendar.
