Global Money Supply Hits $124T, Debasement Trade

Highlights

10x Research says global M2 money supply has grown to $124 trillion, up 10% over the past year.
The firm frames US federal debt, which it puts at $38 trillion and rising 6% annually, as a leading indicator for that broader global money-supply growth.
Official US Treasury data already show total public debt above $40 trillion as of early September.
Analysts remain split on whether rising money supply still translates directly into higher bitcoin prices, with some pointing to a recent decoupling between the two.

A Fresh Data Point for the Debasement Trade

Crypto research firm 10x Research says global money supply has grown to roughly $124 trillion, up 10% over the past year, and argues that rising US government debt is acting as a leading indicator for that broader expansion in liquidity. The firm put US federal debt at $38 trillion, up 6% over the same period, framing the two trends as connected: as the US finances a growing deficit, the resulting issuance and central bank accommodation ripple outward into global monetary aggregates.

That dynamic is often described in markets as the "debasement trade" — the idea that currencies are being systematically devalued relative to scarce assets like bitcoin and gold.

The Debt Number Is Already Higher

The debt figure 10x Research cited is already out of date by the government's own numbers: US Treasury data put total public debt outstanding above $40 trillion as of early September, a level reached faster than most forecasts anticipated even a year ago. That trajectory has been reinforced by the Treasury's own recent actions — the department has continued leaning on bond buybacks and issuance management to keep borrowing costs contained even as debt continues to climb, a pattern some strategists read as an early sign of financial repression. Rising sovereign debt and expanding money supply are not new phenomena, but the pace 10x Research describes — a 10% annual increase in global M2 — would represent a meaningfully faster expansion than the low-single-digit growth rates typical of the pre-2020 era, even if it remains below the emergency-era expansion rates seen during 2020 and 2021. That combination of higher debt and faster money-supply growth is precisely the setup debasement-trade proponents have been waiting for since the framework gained mainstream attention earlier this year. The thesis has gained renewed traction as gold has pushed to fresh highs, with gold ETFs recently posting their biggest weekly inflow in ten months, and some strategists arguing bitcoin and gold are increasingly being bought together as a hedge against currency devaluation rather than treated as separate, uncorrelated trades.

Not Everyone Buys the Simple Version

The thesis is not without its skeptics. Several analysts tracking the relationship between global M2 and bitcoin's price have noted that the two have been decoupling for much of 2026, with bitcoin failing to track global liquidity growth as tightly as it did in prior cycles, and some measures of global M2 growth have even turned negative on a month-over-month basis earlier this year before reaccelerating. That decoupling complicates the simple version of the debasement-trade narrative, which assumes rising money supply mechanically flows into scarce assets with a predictable lag. What is less contested is the underlying fiscal picture: nearly every major economy has continued running large deficits, and the Federal Reserve's own posture toward its balance sheet — whether it resumes expansion or holds steady — is widely viewed by strategists as the more direct catalyst for reconnecting bitcoin's price action with global liquidity trends than the debt and money-supply totals themselves. For traders, the practical takeaway is that debasement-trade positioning is more of a multi-quarter macro bet than a signal that moves markets on any single data release, and its effectiveness depends heavily on whether central banks return to balance-sheet expansion rather than simply managing existing debt loads through buybacks and issuance timing.

What to Watch Next

The next concrete test of the thesis comes with upcoming Federal Reserve balance-sheet decisions and the pace of Treasury issuance in the fourth quarter, both of which will determine whether global M2 growth accelerates further or plateaus. Gold's price action remains a useful real-time gauge of debasement-trade positioning given the metal's more direct historical relationship with money-supply growth, and continued strength there would lend support to bitcoin bulls hoping for a similar catch-up trade. Watch also for the next round of global M2 data, typically reported with a one-to-two month lag, to see whether the 10% annual growth rate 10x Research cited holds up or gets revised as more central banks report.

FAQ

What is the "debasement trade"?
It refers to investors buying scarce assets like bitcoin and gold as a hedge against the idea that rising government debt and money-supply growth are steadily devaluing fiat currencies.

How big is global money supply right now?
10x Research puts global M2 money supply at roughly $124 trillion, up 10% over the past year.

Is US debt really at $38 trillion?
10x Research cited $38 trillion, but official US Treasury data already show total public debt above $40 trillion as of early September, reflecting how quickly the figure has moved.

Does more money supply automatically mean a higher bitcoin price?
Not reliably. Analysts have flagged a decoupling between bitcoin's price and global M2 growth for much of 2026, meaning the relationship has been weaker than in prior cycles.