Attorney and pro-XRP commentator Bill Morgan has argued that XRP already satisfies the digital commodity criteria laid out in the CLARITY Act, the market structure bill working its way through the Senate. According to a report from U.Today, Morgan pointed to provisions in the bill that he says apply favorably to XRP regardless of how much of the token's supply Ripple still controls.
The CLARITY Act establishes what's known as a maturity framework for determining whether a token qualifies as a digital commodity, placing it under Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight rather than the stricter securities regime enforced by the SEC. To qualify, no issuer or affiliated party can beneficially own 20% or more of the asset, among other governance standards.
The math Ripple critics keep citing
Skeptics of XRP's regulatory status typically point to Ripple's outsized holdings: the company directly controls roughly 4.74 billion XRP in operational wallets, with more than 32 billion additional XRP locked in escrow. Combined, that stake is well above the bill's 20% ownership ceiling on paper. Morgan's counterargument leans on a separate pre-existing-system provision in the bill, which allows a token to qualify if more than half of its total supply has already been distributed outside the issuer and related parties — a threshold he says XRP clears given how much of its 100 billion token supply trades in public hands.
A vote on the calendar, but not on the bill itself
Morgan's argument lands as the legislation itself remains stalled. The Senate postponed floor action before its August recess and has now scheduled a procedural cloture vote for September 15 — a vote on whether debate can proceed at all, not on the CLARITY Act's substance. Galaxy Research has reportedly cut its odds of the bill becoming law in 2026 to around 30%, down from 50% earlier in the summer, citing a shrinking legislative calendar and continued disagreement over ethics and illicit-finance provisions.
Related: Senate Sets September 15 Cloture Vote on Crypto's CLARITY Act
That timeline matters for XRP specifically, since the token's regulatory status has been a persistent overhang on its price even after Ripple's long-running SEC litigation wound down. A bill that formally classifies XRP as a commodity would remove much of the remaining ambiguity that has kept some institutional holders on the sidelines — but only if it survives the September cloture vote and the negotiations that would follow.
Markets are already pricing in the uncertainty
Traders don't appear convinced clarity is imminent. Prediction markets have recently leaned toward XRP struggling to hold the $1 level through the end of August, and price forecasts for the token remain split heading into the fall — a sign the market is treating Morgan's legal argument as a talking point rather than a settled outcome. Until the Senate actually moves on the bill, XRP's classification will remain a matter of interpretation rather than law. As recent forecasting models diverge on where the token heads next, that legal ambiguity is likely to keep weighing on sentiment either way.
