Bettors on Polymarket now put 65% odds on XRP closing out August below the $1 mark, a bearish lean that comes as the token grinds through its second straight month pinned near that psychological floor. XRP closed July at $1.06, dipped to an early-August low of $1.03, and has spent nearly two months failing to build any real distance from $1 in either direction.
The stagnation stands out against the rest of the market. XRP gained just 2.18% in July while Ethereum rallied more than 18% over the same stretch — roughly a tenfold gap in return that has pulled the XRP/ETH ratio down 5% in August alone, extending a more than 13% decline the pair posted in July. AMBCrypto reported that open interest in XRP derivatives has also crept back up toward $2.5 billion after touching a low of $2.36 billion in early August, with the outlet noting that "leverage is building back up, putting more pressure on the $1 support level."
ETF demand is drying up at the worst time
The leverage build is coinciding with a sharp pullback in spot XRP ETF demand. Weekly inflows across US-listed XRP ETFs collapsed to just $1.01 million for the week ending August 8, a 93% drop from the $14.86 million logged the prior week, and combined net assets slipped to $964 million from $988 million. The fund group did see a brief reversal on August 7, when Bitwise's XRP ETF pulled in $2.89 million and Franklin Templeton's XRPZ added another $561,560 — enough to offset a $3.58 million outflow the previous session, the first net outflow the group had seen since July 8. But the broader trend of fading institutional appetite is exactly the kind of demand vacuum that tends to leave a token more exposed to bearish positioning in the derivatives market.
On-chain metrics offer a counterweight
Not every signal points the same direction. XRP Ledger network activity has actually strengthened, with seven-day average daily active addresses climbing to 15,200, up 8.1% week over week. The network's ongoing fee-burn mechanism has also kept chipping away at supply, destroying roughly 463 XRP per day and pushing the 206-day cumulative burn total past 95,506 XRP — total supply has ticked down from 99,985,726,061 to 99,985,630,555 over that window. None of that is enough to offset a derivatives market leaning bearish, but it does mean the token's underlying usage hasn't deteriorated the way its price chart might suggest. For a look at how other prediction markets are pricing similar downside scenarios, see ChatGPT's own odds on a deeper XRP crash.
What would flip the setup
A close back above the $1.15 level that has already rejected one rally attempt would likely be the clearest signal that bulls have regained control, especially if it coincided with ETF inflows re-accelerating rather than just posting one-off reversal days. Until then, with leverage rebuilding and institutional demand fading, the path of least resistance the market is pricing in runs through, not above, the $1 level.
Related: Kalshi Traders Bet XRP Retests $1 Floor as ETF Demand Dries Up
