Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor shared data from the company's internal BTC Credit model this week, outlining the price level at which its STRC preferred stock would become undercollateralized. Using a reference case built on a 10% annual Bitcoin return, a BTC price of $63,701 and 40% annualized volatility, the model puts that undercollateralization floor at $16,184 — meaning Bitcoin would need to fall roughly 75% from the reference price before STRC's backing became insufficient.
The model is Strategy's own attempt to quantify how much cushion its Bitcoin-collateralized capital structure has against a severe drawdown, a question that has become more pointed as the company has layered increasing amounts of debt and preferred equity on top of its Bitcoin treasury to keep accumulating the asset.
Why the Company Publishes This At All
Strategy has built its capital-markets strategy around convincing bondholders and preferred shareholders that its Bitcoin collateral can absorb large drawdowns without triggering forced selling or default. Publishing a specific floor price — rather than leaving investors to estimate it themselves — is part of that pitch: it gives credit investors a concrete number to underwrite against rather than a vague assurance about long-term conviction. Strategy's CEO has separately said the company plans to resume Bitcoin purchases this year, continuing the accumulation strategy the model is meant to stress-test.
Related: Metaplanet Moves $340M in Bitcoin as Unrealized Loss Tops $1.4B
A Model, Not a Guarantee
Like any internally produced credit model, the assumptions matter as much as the output. A 40% volatility assumption is elevated relative to Bitcoin's realized volatility in calmer stretches, and the $63,701 reference price is a snapshot rather than a floor — if Bitcoin's actual price were meaningfully lower when a real drawdown began, the effective cushion to $16,184 would shrink accordingly. Investors weighing STRC's risk profile are, in effect, being asked to trust Strategy's own math about its own collateral.
