Highlights
- The US 10-year Treasury yield pushed to roughly 4.80% on September 1, its highest level since January 2025.
- That's about 20 basis points above its recent low, with the bond market continuing to climb through early September.
- Television host Jim Cramer said rate cuts now look unlikely, reflecting a broader shift in market expectations.
- The Fed's own December projections pointed to just one rate cut in 2026, versus roughly two cuts markets had been pricing in.
- Rising oil prices tied to the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruption are adding to the inflation concerns pushing yields higher.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note pushed to roughly 4.80% on September 1, its highest level since January 2025, according to The Kobeissi Letter. The move added another 20 basis points on top of a climb Kobeissi described as the bond market “quite literally ignoring” the Treasury's own efforts to calm it. The same day, television host Jim Cramer said rate cuts now look unlikely, according to Whale Insider, a shift in tone that lines up with a broader repricing of how much easing the Federal Reserve will actually deliver.
Inflation Fears Are Driving the Move
The rise builds on a stretch in which the 10-year yield has climbed steadily off its recent lows, driven in large part by inflation concerns tied to surging oil prices amid the Iran war and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The Federal Reserve's own December projections had pointed to just one rate cut in 2026, a notably more cautious path than the roughly two cuts markets had been pricing in at the time, and the gap between those two expectations has only widened as inflation data has come in hotter, per Trading Economics' tracking of the yield curve. Cramer's comments add a market-facing voice to a shift that had already been visible in futures pricing: traders positioned for a steady cutting cycle are now recalibrating around the possibility the Fed holds rates well into 2026 if energy-driven inflation doesn't ease.
Why Crypto and Gold Both Feel It
Higher long-term yields ripple directly into crypto positioning, since Treasuries compete with risk assets for capital, and a 15-month high on the 10-year raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. It also pressures the valuation math behind actively-marketed crypto treasury strategies and equity-linked crypto plays, which tend to get discounted more harshly when the risk-free rate climbs. For gold, which has already been sliding as the standoff between the Fed and Treasury escalates, higher yields compound the pressure since bullion pays no yield of its own and becomes relatively less attractive the more Treasuries pay. The combination, sticky inflation, a Fed sounding more cautious than markets had hoped, and yields still climbing in September, is precisely the setup that tends to weigh on risk appetite across both crypto and traditional markets at once.
Related: Bessent Defends Bond Buybacks After Druckenmiller's Rebuke
What Comes Next
The next clear catalyst is the upcoming US jobs report, which JPMorgan has separately warned could sink stocks this week if it comes in stronger than expected and further dents rate-cut odds. Traders will also be watching whether oil prices keep climbing on Iran-war-related supply disruption, since that remains the single biggest swing factor behind the recent inflation and yield moves, a de-escalation there could just as quickly reverse the pressure driving yields to their current highs.
FAQ
How high did the US 10-year Treasury yield climb?
The yield pushed to roughly 4.80% on September 1, its highest level since January 2025.
Why are Treasury yields rising?
Rising oil prices tied to the Iran war and disruption at the Strait of Hormuz have stoked inflation concerns, pushing investors to demand higher yields on long-term debt.
What did Jim Cramer say about rate cuts?
Cramer said further Federal Reserve rate cuts now look unlikely, reflecting a broader market shift away from expectations of a steady 2026 cutting cycle.
How does this affect crypto markets?
Higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and gold, typically pressuring risk appetite across both crypto and traditional markets.
