Highlights
- The S&P 500 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing index is up roughly 108% over the past 12 months, near an all-time high around 3,250 points.
- The index has gained about 104% year-to-date in 2026, versus roughly 11% for the broader S&P 500.
- Individual refiners Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy and HF Sinclair have each surged more than 80% this year.
- The index sits 41% above its 150-day moving average, a level reached only five times before — each followed by an average six-month decline of 10.1%.
US oil refiners have delivered one of the biggest rallies anywhere in equities this year. The S&P 500 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing index has climbed roughly 108% over the trailing 12 months, according to data highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter, pushing the benchmark to around 3,250 points and within reach of its all-time high. The index tracks the large US companies that refine, market and transport oil and gas — a corner of the energy sector that has historically traded as a slower, more defensive cousin to exploration and production stocks.
Year-to-date, the index is up about 104%, according to CNBC's tracking of the sector, compared with roughly 11% for the broader S&P 500 over the same span. Individual names have driven the move: Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy and HF Sinclair have each gained more than 80% in 2026, powered by refining margins that have widened sharply as geopolitical disruptions tighten global fuel supply.
A Historically Rare Setup
The rally has pushed the index 41% above its own 150-day moving average — a stretch that has occurred only five other times in the index's history. In every one of those five prior instances, the index fell over the following six months, by an average of 10.1%. That statistic doesn't guarantee a repeat, but it is the kind of historical base rate that makes momentum traders nervous about chasing the move much further without a pullback first.
Why It Matters Beyond Energy
Refining margins this wide typically reflect a supply-side squeeze rather than pure demand strength, meaning the rally says as much about fuel logistics and geopolitical risk premiums as it does about the health of the broader economy. For markets more broadly, a historically stretched sector trading this far above trend is often an early signal of where profit-taking shows up first if broader risk sentiment turns, since refiners tend to be more liquid and more heavily traded by momentum funds than smaller energy names. Higher fuel costs also feed into headline inflation readings globally, linking this rally back to the same price pressures shaping central bank decisions elsewhere this quarter.
Related: Oil Tops $91 as US Strikes Iranian Targets Near Strait of Hormuz
What to Watch Next
Traders will be watching whether refining margins stay wide into the fourth quarter or begin normalizing as new supply comes online, along with whether the index's distance from its 150-day moving average starts to compress. A break back toward that moving average — implying a pullback of double-digit percentage points based on the historical pattern — would be the clearest sign the run is cooling.
FAQ
How much have oil refiner stocks risen in 2026?
The S&P 500 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing index is up about 104% year-to-date and roughly 108% over the trailing 12 months.
Which stocks are leading the rally?
Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy and HF Sinclair have each gained more than 80% this year.
What's driving the surge?
Widening refining margins and geopolitical disruptions that have tightened global fuel supply.
Does history suggest the rally could reverse?
The index is 41% above its 150-day moving average, a level reached five times before in its history — each time followed by an average decline of 10.1% over the next six months.
