Bitcoin has spent over a month consolidating between $58,076 and $66,896, and the latest on-chain data suggests the next move may hinge on a widening split between two groups of holders. Santiment data shows that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC increased their holdings by 0.34% since July 29, while small holders with less than 0.01 BTC reduced their positions by 0.59% over the same stretch. Bitcoin last traded near $64,790, up 4.4% over the past 30 days.
Santiment framed the divergence as a bullish signal rather than a warning sign.
“With the pattern of key stakeholders accumulating and small holders dumping, the probability of over $70,000 becomes more and more probable compared to the likelihood of sub $60,000,” the firm said.
The whale-versus-retail split has deep roots this cycle
This isn't an isolated reading. CryptoQuant tracked whale wallets accumulating more than 270,000 BTC over a two-week stretch in late June and early July when Bitcoin dropped below $58,000, and a separate 60-day window ending July 19 showed 1,000-to-10,000 BTC wallets adding roughly 66,700 coins in one of the strongest buying waves of the year. Mid-sized holders with 100 to 1,000 BTC — a cohort that includes miners, early investors, and rebalancing funds — offset much of that by distributing around 77,800 BTC in the same window, while retail wallets under 10 BTC have been net sellers for more than a month. The pattern of large wallets buying dips that smaller holders create has now persisted long enough that analysts increasingly read it as a structural feature of this cycle rather than a one-off.
ETF flows and trading volume back the accumulation case
Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $754.69 million in net inflows in August so far, pushing total net assets to $78.77 billion, even as 24-hour trading volume fell 17% on Friday to $18.43 billion — a combination that points to steady institutional buying against a backdrop of thinning overall activity. Bitcoin's supply in loss has also reached an all-time high by some measures, a condition that has historically coincided with the tail end of macro bear markets rather than their start.
Related: Bitcoin Whales Buy $1.2B as Spot ETFs Post Best Week Since April
Taken together, the accumulation pattern, ETF inflows, and elevated supply-in-loss reading form a case that the current consolidation range is closer to a floor than a ceiling. Whether that translates into a move toward $70,000 or another leg down toward $60,000 will likely depend on whether small holders keep capitulating faster than whales can absorb the supply, or whether that selling pressure finally dries up.
