XRP closed out July 2026 at $1.06, a level that sets up what could be a pivotal August for the token: it needs only to close the month above its opening price to snap four consecutive years of losses in that calendar month.
XRP has posted a negative August every year from 2022 through 2025, and the last time the token closed the month in the green was 2021. Over that entire stretch, August has actually averaged a modest positive return of about 0.43% when the full historical dataset is considered — meaning the recent run of red Augusts has been an outlier rather than the norm.
A rough first half gives way to a stronger July
The 2026 seasonal pattern has been unusually volatile. XRP fell 27.1% in the first quarter and another 22.4% in the second, with June alone accounting for a 22.1% decline. July reversed course with a 1.91% gain, and the token is currently up roughly 2.10% quarter-to-date heading into the back half of Q3.
For context, June and February have historically been XRP's weakest months, averaging declines of 6.40% and 6.14%, respectively — meaning 2026's June drawdown was roughly three times worse than the historical average for that month.
Why Q3 matters more than August alone
Even with four straight negative Augusts, XRP's broader third-quarter performance has stayed positive every year over that same span. Historically, Q3 has delivered an average return near 17%, with a median return closer to 25.8% — figures that suggest August weakness has typically been offset by stronger September and quarter-end action.
The technical setup ahead
XRP has spent more than a year inside a descending wedge pattern, with resistance at the upper boundary sitting between $1.20 and $1.25. Support has held in the $1.05 to $1.06 zone, which is roughly where the token closed out July. A confirmed close above the wedge's upper boundary would mark a technical breakout on top of ending the August losing streak, while a slip back below $1.05 would keep the multi-year pattern of red Augusts intact.
