Around $16.6 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options positions are set to expire this quarter, and the positioning behind that number leans further toward calls than puts on both assets — a signal that traders holding open contracts are, on balance, still betting on higher prices rather than hedging against lower ones.
The Bitcoin side carries the bulk of the notional value: about $14.73 billion across 186,000 open contracts. The put/call ratio sits at 0.52, meaning for every ten put contracts betting on a decline, there are roughly nineteen calls betting on a rise. Max pain — the price at which the largest number of options would expire worthless, and the level toward which some traders believe prices gravitate as expiry nears — sits at $72,000. But the real weight of the positioning is stacked above that: the heaviest call concentration clusters near $70,000, with meaningful additional open interest built up at $85,000, $90,000, and even $100,000.
Ethereum's book is smaller in dollar terms but denser in contract count. Notional value comes in near $1.92 billion spread across 756,100 open contracts — more than four times Bitcoin's contract count despite a fraction of the notional, a reflection of ETH options trading in much smaller size per contract. The put/call ratio reads 0.57, similarly skewed toward calls, with max pain at $2,200. The single largest concentration of open interest sits at the $30,000 strike, holding roughly 43,000 contracts — a number that only makes sense in context of how far out-of-the-money bullish positioning can get priced into an options chain when traders are willing to pay small premiums for a shot at outsized moves.
Reading an options expiry requires separating two different things: where the market currently trades, and where the options chain is betting it could go. A max pain price is not a prediction so much as a mechanical calculation of where option sellers lose the least money — some traders watch it as a magnet effect into expiry, others dismiss it as noise once you account for how few of the open contracts are actually held to expiration rather than closed or rolled beforehand. The call-heavy skew across both assets matters more as a sentiment read: it tells you where professional and retail options traders alike have been willing to pay for exposure to further upside, even if that doesn't guarantee the move happens.
What makes this expiry worth watching is less the raw dollar figure — quarterly options expiries routinely clear well into the billions across major exchanges — and more the consistency of the skew across two assets that don't always move in lockstep. When both BTC and ETH options books show put/call ratios comfortably under 1.0 at the same time, it suggests the bullish lean isn't isolated to one asset's specific narrative but reflects a broader risk appetite running through the derivatives market heading into expiry.
FAQ
What does a put/call ratio below 1.0 mean?
It means there are more call options (bets on higher prices) open than put options (bets on lower prices). A ratio of 0.52, as seen in Bitcoin's book, means calls outnumber puts by roughly two to one.
What is "max pain" in options trading?
Max pain is the strike price at which the largest number of outstanding options would expire worthless, minimizing the payout option sellers owe. Some traders treat it as a magnet price into expiry, though it isn't a guaranteed outcome.
Why does Ethereum have more contracts but less notional value than Bitcoin?
ETH options tend to trade in smaller per-contract sizes than BTC options, so a much higher contract count (756,100 versus 186,000) can still add up to a smaller total dollar value ($1.92B versus $14.73B).
For more on how derivatives positioning is shaping this stretch of the market, see the record $9.6 trillion in broader US options also expiring this month and how ETH options traders have been buying more calls than Bitcoin's ahead of the Fed decision.
Related: Arkham Trader Up $21M on Leveraged BTC and ETH Longs
With spot ETF flows telling a more mixed story over the same stretch, the options market's bullish tilt stands out as one of the more one-sided signals currently visible across BTC and ETH positioning.
