Bitcoin climbed back above the $65,000 mark on Monday, rising roughly 1.2% over 24 hours to trade at $65,355.72, as easing tensions between the United States and Iran lifted risk appetite across markets. Ether outperformed the broader crypto market, jumping more than 3% to trade near $1,950, while Solana and XRP each added 1-2%.
The rally coincided with a sharp pullback in oil prices after the U.S. and Iran held fire for a second consecutive day on Sunday, easing the geopolitical tensions that had pushed crude higher in recent sessions. WTI futures gapped lower on Monday, trading around 5% down near $85 a barrel, while Brent crude fell 4.7% to $92.19.
Bitcoin's dominance of the broader crypto market stood at 58.6%, even as Ether's outperformance pointed to renewed interest in altcoins. Traditional markets moved in tandem with the risk-on tone, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures both up 0.5% in early trading.
Fed decision looms as an immediate risk
Markets are now turning their attention to the Federal Reserve, with futures pricing in a 36.3% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike. Vikram Subburaj said that "prices are also responding to macro developments," pointing to the Fed's meeting scheduled for July 28-29 as the next major catalyst for crypto and broader risk assets.
Related: Oil Slides 7% as Iran Signals It Will Halt Attacks If Pause Holds
A longer-term bottom in view?
Beyond the immediate macro backdrop, some analysts see Bitcoin's recent price action as part of a longer cyclical pattern. Joao Wedson argued that "Bitcoin is already building its price bottom, with potential final bottom forming within next two months," citing a roughly 900-day pattern that has historically separated Bitcoin halvings from bear market bottoms.
For now, the combination of a cooling Middle East conflict and falling energy prices has given crypto markets room to breathe, though traders are likely to stay cautious heading into this week's Fed decision.
The move highlighted a recurring pattern this year: Bitcoin's reaction to Middle East headlines has been far muted compared to oil's. When President Trump later declared the ceasefire "over" in early July, Brent crude surged past $83 a barrel while Bitcoin barely flinched — oil moved roughly six times more than Bitcoin on the identical headline. The ceasefire itself, framed by a June 17 memorandum between Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian covering removal of a US naval blockade and free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, proved fragile, with reports of an extension past its August 17 deadline never publicly confirmed by either government.
FAQ
Why does oil react so much more than Bitcoin to Iran ceasefire news?
Oil has a direct physical supply-chain link to the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East shipping routes, while Bitcoin's price is driven more by broader risk sentiment and liquidity conditions — geopolitical oil-supply shocks simply don't map onto Bitcoin's price drivers the same way.
Is the US-Iran ceasefire still active?
Its status has been repeatedly unclear — Trump declared it "over" in early July before reports suggested an extension past the August 17 deadline, though neither government has publicly confirmed the ceasefire's current standing.
Source: CoinDesk
