Highlights

  • OpenAI is in early-stage talks with investors on a round that would value the company above $1.2 trillion.
  • That would mark a roughly 41% jump from the $852 billion valuation it carried after closing a $122 billion round on March 31.
  • SoftBank's five-year credit-default swaps are trading near 383 basis points, close to their highest level since 2023.
  • SoftBank has pledged $64.6 billion to OpenAI and needs bond proceeds to help refinance a $40 billion bridge loan tied to the bet.

OpenAI is back at the table with investors, and the number on offer keeps climbing. According to Reuters reported, citing the Financial Times, the ChatGPT maker has held early discussions with large investors about a fresh capital raise that would push its valuation to roughly $1.2 trillion. The talks were reportedly initiated by investors rather than OpenAI itself, and no figure for the size of the round has surfaced yet.

The number is striking mainly for how fast it has moved. OpenAI closed a $110 billion round at a $730 billion valuation in February, then followed with $122 billion at $852 billion on March 31. A $1.2 trillion mark would tack on close to $350 billion in paper value in under six months — a pace that has little precedent even by the standards of this AI cycle.

It also arrives just three days after Sam Altman ruled out a public listing this year. Altman told reporters on September 12 that taking OpenAI public in 2026 would be premature given the pace of safety work the company still has ahead of it, effectively steering the company back toward private capital while an IPO — one Altman has said is still being prepared for a later date — waits in the wings.

Related: Altman Rules Out an OpenAI IPO This Year Over AI Safety Fears

For OpenAI's largest backer, the timing cuts the other way. SoftBank has committed $64.6 billion to OpenAI, and its five-year credit-default swaps are now trading around 383 basis points, based on data from CMA — near the highest level the contracts have reached since 2023. Traders are effectively pricing in more risk around SoftBank's balance sheet at the exact moment its biggest bet is being marked up.

The mechanics explain why. SoftBank took on a bridge loan of roughly $40 billion to help fund its OpenAI commitments and is now working to refinance part of that gap with new bond issuance, with executives reportedly meeting investors in New York to gauge appetite for $10 billion to $20 billion in new debt. A higher OpenAI valuation on paper does nothing to close that funding gap in the near term — it is unrealized equity in a company that just took an IPO off the table, while the bridge loan and its refinancing needs are due on a schedule set by lenders, not by fundraising talks.

That mismatch is the crux of the credit market's skepticism. SoftBank's exposure to OpenAI has become the single biggest variable in how bond and CDS markets assess the group's financial health, and a bigger headline valuation without an exit event — an IPO, a share sale, anything that converts equity into cash — does little to ease the pressure on that side of the ledger. It is also consistent with a broader shift in credit markets, where default-swap premiums on major AI-exposed technology names have been climbing as investors question whether the returns on AI capital expenditure will show up on the timeline the spending implies.

None of this changes what a $1.2 trillion valuation would mean for OpenAI itself: another marker in a run of raises that has repeatedly outpaced its own prior round within months, and a fresh data point for the debate over how AI-driven earnings optimism is being priced across markets far beyond OpenAI's own cap table. Whether the round closes anywhere near that number, and on what terms, will say more about investor appetite than the figure floated in early talks ever could.