Analyst Sees Bitcoin Sliding to $45,000 by Start of Q4 2026

Bitcoin was trading around $64,710 on Sunday, up 0.9% over the previous 24 hours and roughly 0.3% for the week, but at least one analyst thinks that calm is masking a much rougher path ahead. In a TradingView post shared on July 24, market analyst TradingShot laid out a case for Bitcoin falling to $45,000 by the start of October 2026 — a decline of more than 30% from current levels.

The call rests on a historical pattern rather than a single indicator. TradingShot's analysis lines up the present market cycle against the aftermath of three prior exchange collapses: Mt. Gox in 2014, BitGrail in 2018, and FTX in 2022. In each of those cases, the analyst argues, the failure landed during a bear-market phase and coincided with a major cycle low. The trigger this time, according to the post, is BitMEX's announced closure after 11 years of operation — an event TradingShot frames as fitting the same pattern of an exchange-related shock arriving near a cycle turning point.

The Technical Case for $45,000

On the charts, TradingShot points to Bitcoin currently trading above its Realized Price Buy Zone, a support band the analyst treats as a key structural floor. The rising 100-month moving average is cited as another layer of support underneath that zone, with the 2022 bear-market bottom having formed just above the same level. If history repeats and Bitcoin works its way down toward that moving average, $45,000 is roughly where the two lines intersect heading into early Q4.

Related: Bitcoin ETF Trading Volume Sinks to Lowest Since October 2024 as Ether Funds Keep Outpacing Inflows

A More Bullish Read on the Short Term

Not every analyst is reading the chart the same way over a shorter time frame. In a post on X on July 25, trader Ali Martinez flagged $63,800 as the level to watch on the four-hour chart, right around where Bitcoin has been trading.

"If this level holds as support, I'm watching for a rebound toward $67,000."

Martinez added that a break below $63,800 would open the door to a slide toward $60,000 instead — a far narrower range than TradingShot's Q4 target, and one that reflects near-term positioning rather than a multi-month cycle call.

Demand From ETFs Complicates the Picture

Underneath both technical arguments sits a demand story that cuts against an imminent breakdown. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have just logged their strongest inflow streak of 2026, pulling in nearly $1 billion and helping drive the recovery from the roughly $58,000 lows Bitcoin touched earlier in July. That kind of institutional buying is exactly the sort of support that could blunt — or at least delay — the type of cycle-low decline TradingShot's historical comparison anticipates. Whether that demand holds up through the Q4 window the analyst flagged may end up being the deciding factor.

TradingShot’s $45,000 call sits toward the bearish end of a wide range of Q4 forecasts currently circulating among analysts. NYDIG has floated a similar downside scenario, with Bitcoin bottoming near $38,000–$39,000 by October, while Citigroup’s own bear case sits higher, around $53,000. On the more extreme end, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone has floated a $10,000 mean-reversion tail risk if liquidity conditions tighten sharply. Most desks, however, are less bearish than any of these, expecting a bottom in the $60,000-to-$68,000 range — closer to the view laid out in our coverage of ARK's consolidation-phase thesis.

FAQ

How does TradingShot's $45,000 forecast compare to other analysts?
It's on the more bearish side. NYDIG has floated a comparable $38,000–$39,000 scenario, while Citigroup's bear case sits around $53,000 and most other desks expect a higher bottom in the $60,000–$68,000 range.

What exchange collapses is TradingShot comparing this cycle to?
The analyst is drawing on historical patterns from past exchange-collapse-driven drawdowns to project how deep and how fast the current decline could extend before finding a floor.